Amazing Milestone: US Cheese Production Hits 10 Billion Pounds

Wow! That’s the first thing that pops into our head when pondering the news, as reported on our front page this week, that US cheese production last year topped 10 billion pounds for the first time ever. Ten billion pounds of cheese. Wow!

This amazing milestone prompts a couple of questions. First, how did the cheese industry get to this point?
And second, where does the cheese industry go from here?

Regarding that first question, the US cheese industry’s history has been one of growing production for about as long as cheese production statistics have been tracked by the federal government.

Cheese production figures from USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service date back to 1919. That year, US cheese production was 479.4 million pounds, or about what the US now produces in a couple of weeks.

US cheese production hasn’t always grown steadily, as it has in recent decades (the last time cheese output actually declined was in 1991). For example, in 1920, production dipped to 417.9 million pounds. Later in the 1920s, cheese production declined in 1926 and 1927, and by 1929 was 498.8 million pounds, or less than 20 million pounds higher than in 1919.

Cheese production did grow fairly impressively in the 1930s, although it declined in the first two years of the decade and again in the final year of the decade. Output by 1939 was up to 710.3 million pounds.

The 1940s saw a couple of milestones in cheese production. First, there was the first recorded production increase that exceeded 100 million pounds: 1941 output, at 956.2 million pounds, was up almost 171 million pounds from 1940.

And second, US cheese production topped the 1.0 billion pound mark for the first time. It hit that mark in 1942, when it reached 1.1 billion pounds.

That was the last cheese production milestone to be achieved for a number of years. Cheese production in 1949 was 1.2 billion pounds, or less than 100 million pounds above the 1942 level. And like the 1920s and 1930s, cheese production during the 1940s posted several declines, in 1943 (the last year US cheese output was below 1.0 billion pounds), in 1946 and again in 1948.

The next two decades saw pretty slow, and not always steady, growth in US cheese production. In the 1950s, cheese production actually declined four times (including in 1950), and by 1959 cheese production was up less than 200 million pounds from 1949.

Growth in cheese production was steadier in the 1960s, with output declining just once (in 1962), and production in 1969, at 1.99 billion pounds, up more than 600 million pounds from 1959.

It was in the 1970s that US cheese production really started to take off, as evidenced by the number of milestones reached and the overall growth starting at that time. It was in 1970 that US cheese production first topped 2.0 billion pounds, and later that decade cheese output surpassed 3.0 billion pounds for the first time.

By the end of the 1970s, US cheese production had grown to over 3.7 billion pounds, or about 3.0 billion pounds more than in 1939.

More milestones fell over the next three decades. Indeed, each of the next two decades saw a couple of milestones reached.

Cheese production first topped 4.0 billion pounds in 1981, and reached 5.0 billion pounds (or half the current volume) by 1985. By 1989, cheese output was over 5.6 billion pounds per year, or about 1.9 billion pounds higher than in 1979.

In the 1990s, cheese production topped 6.0 billion pounds for the first time in 1990, then surpassed 7.0 billion pounds for the first time in 1996. By 1999, US cheese output was more than 2.3 billion pounds higher than it was in 1989. By most measures, the 1990s was an impressive decade of growth for cheese production.

But the 1980s and 1990s had nothing on the growth in cheese production experienced in the first decade of the 21st century. There are a couple of reasons why cheese production, just from a statistical standpoint, was truly remarkable in the decade just ended.

First, there were zero production declines during the entire decade. None!

Cheese production increased every single year during the decade.

Every other decade since NASS started tracking cheese production experienced at least one year in which cheese production declined. Until the first decade in the 21st century, when the closest thing to a decline in cheese production was in 2001, when output was up only 2.6 million pounds from 2000.

Not only were there no declines in cheese production in the decade just ended, there were some mighty impressive one-year increases in output. Most impressively, 2006 cheese production, at 9.52 billion pounds, was up 375.2 million pounds from 2005; and 2004 output, at 8.87 billion pounds, was up almost 316 million pounds from 2003.

Second, the decade just ended saw a total of three “milestones” reached. Cheese production first topped the 8.0 billion mark in 2000, first topped 9.0 billion pounds in 2005 and then reached the lofty height of 10.0 billion pounds in 2009.

With all of that history in mind, what does the future hold for US cheese production? The logical answer: more production increases, and more milestones.

Although the decade just underway probably won’t duplicate the decade just ended, partly because it will be nearly impossible to hit three more milestones after just reaching 10.0 billion pounds in 2009, most signs point to further gains in cheese production in the years ahead.

When pondering future cheese production prospects, keep in mind that US cheese production roughly doubled, rising from 5.1 billion pounds to 10.1 billion pounds, from 1985 to 2009.

Ten billion pounds is a wonderful milestone for the US cheese industry, but it’s just one in a long line of past and future milestones for a growing and dynamic industry. r

Cheese Reporter welcomes letters to the editor. E-mail your comment to Dick Groves at dgroves@cheesereporter.com.

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