US Dairy Will be More Competitive
Vol. 141, No. 23 • Friday, November 25, 2016
Volatile cheese prices have meant volatile Class III milk prices this year. On the CME 40-pound Cheddar blocks averaged a low of $1.3174 per pound in May, rebounding to $1.7826 in August only to fall back to $1.6035 in October. The result was the May Class III was $12.76, August $16.91 and October $14.82.
The good news is that while November cheese prices have had some rather big price increases as well as decreases, overall cheese prices have shown surprising strength in November to the point that the November Class III could be near $16.75. During November 40-pound Cheddar blocks started out at $1.80 per pound, were as high as $1.9425, and barrels started at $1.73 per pound and were as high as $1.86.
After Christmas season cheese orders are filled, cheese prices are likely to weaken resulting in a Class III in the low $16’s for December. The Class III price will average near $14.75 for the year compared to $15.80 last year and $22.24 for 2014.
Despite adequate cheese stocks we have seen this price increase. September 30th American cheese stocks were 6.5 percent higher than a year ago. But, continued good cheese sales have tightened the availability of fresh 40-pound block Cheddar while stocks of more aged cheese are much more plentiful. Stocks of Cheddar barrel have not been as tight explaining the rather large existing price spread between blocks and barrels.
Cheese prices were not helped by exports. September cheese exports were just 0.6 percent lower than a year ago, but 20.5 percent lower than strong exports in 2014. Higher Cheddar prices may be partially explained by production.
While the production of Italian types has been running more than 4 percent higher than a year ago Cheddar cheese production was 0.5 percent lower in September and 0.8 percent lower year to date.
Class IV prices have not been as volatile.
Nonfat dry milk prices slowly strengthened reaching an average of $0.916 per pound in September, but fell back some to $0.8852 for October and have now increased to $0.90. Class IV was a low of $12.68 in April, a high of $14.84 in July dropping to $13.66 in October, and will be near $13.80 for November. The interest in US butter picked up in September with exports 137 percent higher than a year ago, but still 30 percent lower than September 2014 exports and 73.5 percent lower than 2014 exports year to date. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder exports have held up with September exports 10 percent higher than a year ago, and year to date exports 5 percent higher and even 3 percent higher compared to 2014.
Looking ahead into 2017 milk prices will depend a lot on the level of milk production. Milk production continues to run well above year ago levels with October production up 2.5 percent. Of the 23 reporting states 11 had fewer cows than a year ago. But, more milk per cow is driving the increase in milk production. Milk per cow was 2.3 percent higher than a year ago.
Milk production for the year will end up about 2 percent higher than 2015. While milk cows will average just 0.1 percent higher milk per cow will be about 1.7 higher.
USDA is forecasting 2017 milk production to increase another 2.1 percent. That is a lot of milk. But, we can expect high milk prices from continued good butter and cheese sales as wells improved exports as we move through next year.
The growth in world milk production has slowed as major exporters—EU, New Zealand, Australia and Argentina—all are experiencing lower milk production with either a decline or relatively small increases for 2017.
The US is the only major exporter experiencing higher milk production.
World demand has picked up with China and other major importers being more active. This tightening of world supply and demand will reduce the buildup of world surplus increasing world dairy product prices making US dairy products more competitive on the world market. World prices are already showing strength.
As of now it looks like the Class III price may be in the high $15’s at the start of 2017, in the low $16’s by the end of first quarter, in the mid-$16’s by second quarter, higher $16’s third quarter and with the $17’s as a possibility fourth quarter. The average for the year could be near $16.50, a good improvement over the expected $14.75 this year.
This is more optimistic than USDA and some other forecasters are forecasting. USDA has the Class III averaging from $15.30 to $16.20. But, final milk prices will be subject to any rather small changes in milk production, sales, or exports.
Dr. Bob Cropp is the Professor Emeritus at the University of Wisconsin-Madison