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Cheese, Whey, SMP To Pace Dairy Trade Growth Over Next Decade

Lower Growth Expected For Butter, Whole Milk Powder; Cheese Imports To Grow Faster In Developing Countries

A general expansion in global dairy trade is expected over the coming decade, with growth of more than 2 percent per annum expected for cheese, whey and skim milk powder (SMP), according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023, which was released today.

More specifically, cheese trade is expected to grow by 2.4 percent per annum over the next decade, SMP by 2.5 percent per annum, whole milk powder by 1.7 percent, and butter by 0.7 percent. Trade in whey is also expected to expand by more than 2 percent annually.

The vast bulk of this growth will be met by increased exports from the US, European Union (EU), New Zealand and Australia, the report said. These four countries will account jointly for 74 percent of world cheese, 74 percent of world WMP, 81 percent of world butter and 86 percent of world SMP exports in 2023.

The EU will remain the main cheese exporter, accounting for 39 percent of world exports in 2023, but its growth rate is below that of the other major cheese exporters, including the US, New Zealand and Australia, the report said. Several other countries, including Saudi Arabia, Belarus, Ukraine, Egypt, Turkey and Argentina export considerable amounts of cheese predominantly to neighboring markets.
New Zealand will remain the primary source for butter on the international market, with a 47 percent market share, although losing some share to the other major exporters.

In the case of whole milk powder (WMP), it is expected that New Zealand can increase its share in world trade over the next decade to 57 percent. Other important exporters are the EU, Argentina and Australia.

The US is the largest source of skim milk powder exports, at a projected 34 percent share by 2023, and is expected to expand more rapidly than the other major suppliers. Considerable increases are expected for skim milk powder exports by India.

Country coverage of the whey powder market is limited, but trade is projected to increase considerably in the coming decade, the report said.

Exports from the EU, United States and New Zealand are all expected to grow by more than 3 percent per annum and will reach a combined 1.2 million tons of exports in 2023.
In contrast to dairy exports, imports are much more widespread and generally the dominant destinations for dairy exports are developing countries, especially in Asia and Africa. Cheese is the exception to this.

Cheese imports in developed countries are currently higher than in developing countries, but it is expected that cheese imports in developing countries will grow at a much faster rate (4.4 percent per annum) than in developed countries (0.7 percent per annum), the report said.

The Russian Federation remains the primary cheese importer, followed by Japan. China is expected ...more