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US Milk Production Expected To Rise 1.1% Per Year Through 2030

US milk production is projected to rise at a compound annual growth rate of 1.1 percent over the next 10 years, reaching 248 billion pounds in 2030, according to long-term agricultural projections released this week by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The long-term projections presented in the report are a USDA consensus on a conditional long-run scenario for the agricultural sector.

USDA’s projections, also referred to as the baseline projections, were prepared using data available through October 2020. The 2018 farm bill is assumed to remain effect through the projection period.

The scenario presented in USDA’s report is not an agency forecast about the future. Instead, it is a conditional, long-run scenario about what would be expected under the continuation of current farm legislation and other specific assumptions.

Milk production rises every year year under USDA’s projections. With slow growth in domestic demand as the economy recovers from the pandemic, the dairy herd will remain relatively flat in the middle of the decade but grow in the latter years.

In 2030, milk cows are projected to number 9.43 million head, up 65,000 head from last year’s average number of milk cows.

Economies of scale trends are expected to continue, leading to further dairy farm consolidation. Technological and genetic developments will contribute to increasing yields. In 2030, milk production per cow is projected to average 26,295 pounds, up from 2020’s estimated average of 23,735 pounds.

Commercial use of dairy products is expected to increase faster than the growth in the US population over the next decade, the report said. Cheese demand is expected to rise because of continued greater consumption of prepared foods and increased away-from-home eating. Butter demand is also expected to grow significantly.

The decline in per capita consumption of fluid milk products is expected to continue over the next decade, the report said.

Global demand for US dairy products is expected to continue to grow over the next 10 years, with the largest increases being in exports of products with high skim-solids content such as dry skim milk products (nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder), whey products, and lactose.

By 2030, US dairy exports are expected to be 4.0 percent of milk production on a milkfat, milk-equivalent basis and 22.6 percent on a skim-solids, milk-equivalent basis.

The all-milk price in 2021 is expected to be lower than in 2020 as milk production increases significantly. At the time the projections were made, some government purchase programs were scheduled to be discontinued at the end of 2020.

Feed prices are expected to in-

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